Cash flow planning for property groups: a simple model that scales to many SPVs

Cash flow planning in a property group is not hard because the maths is complicated. It is hard because the truth is distributed.

Rent is collected in dozens of SPV bank accounts. Debt service happens on different days. Capex hits in lumpy bursts. Some cash is restricted. Some is trapped. And by the time you have pulled everything into a spreadsheet, the week has moved on.

The good news: you do not need an enterprise treasury system to get control. You need a simple, repeatable cash flow model designed for the realities of many SPVs-and built to scale without turning into a fragile monster.

This post lays out the "minimum viable" approach we see work best for property portfolios: a model that gives you reliable answers quickly, improves month by month, and stays manageable at 10, 25, or 100+ SPVs.

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Why SPV-based cash flow planning is different

A single-entity business can often plan cash with a basic receipts-and-payments forecast. Property groups cannot, because SPVs create structural constraints:

• Cash is not fungible. Cash in SPV A cannot always be used to fund SPV B.
• Restricted cash is real. Debt service reserves, retention accounts, escrow, and tenant deposits inflate "cash" while reducing usable liquidity.
• Timing matters more than totals. A portfolio can look liquid on paper but still miss a payment if cash lands after a lender sweep or invoice run.
• Debt is facility-specific. Covenants and payment schedules are tested where the debt sits-often at SPV/facility level.
• Capex is lumpy. Refurb programmes, void works, and compliance spend do not behave like steady-state OpEx.

So the goal is not a perfect forecast. It is to answer the questions that prevent surprises:

• How much unrestricted cash do we have-by SPV and in total?
• What is our cash runway if collections dip or capex accelerates?
• Which SPVs will go negative, and when?
• What cash is trapped vs transferable?
• What decisions do we need to make this week-not next month?

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The minimum viable model that scales: 13 weeks + 12 months

A scalable setup usually has two horizons:

1) A 13-week rolling cash flow (weekly buckets)

This is your operational control panel:

• upcoming debt service
• capex payments and commitments
• tax/VAT spikes
• known supplier runs
• expected rent collections timing

Weekly buckets are the sweet spot: detailed enough to prevent surprises, not so detailed that maintenance becomes a full-time job.

2) A 12-month view (monthly buckets)

This is your planning layer:

• refinance milestones and maturity wall
• seasonal cost patterns
• planned refurb programmes
• distribution planning and capital return pacing

Key point: You do not need line-item detail for 12 months. You need directional accuracy and scenario sensitivity.

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Design principles: keep it simple, keep it consistent, keep it reconcilable

Principle 1: Start from bank reality, not P&L reality

A cash flow model must reconcile to:

• opening bank balances (by account / by SPV)
• movements you can explain
• closing balances you can tie back

If your model does not tie to bank, you will spend every cycle debating the numbers instead of using them.

Practical tip: treat "opening cash" as sacred-pulled directly from bank feeds or month-end reconciled balances.

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Principle 2: Split "cash" into usable and not-usable

At minimum, separate:

• Unrestricted cash (usable for operations or transfers, subject to structure)
• Restricted cash (DSRA, escrow, retentions, tenant deposits, covenants)
• Trapped cash (technically unrestricted but not realistically transferable due to covenants, lender controls, local rules, or governance)

This single change prevents the most common lie in SPV groups: "We have plenty of cash" when the cash is not deployable.

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Principle 3: Standardise cash categories across SPVs

You cannot scale forecasting if every SPV uses different line items.

Create a standard cash flow chart (a small one), for example:

Operating

• Rent receipts
• Other income
• Property OpEx (grouped)
• Asset/management fees
• Payroll/overheads (if applicable)

Investing

• Capex spend (split: committed vs discretionary)
• Acquisition/disposal flows (if relevant)

Financing

• Interest
• Principal amortisation
• Fees
• Equity injections / distributions
• Intercompany loans/transfers

Then map each SPV to that structure. You are not trying to perfect everything-just enough consistency to roll up and compare.

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Principle 4: Forecast the big drivers, bucket the long tail

The fastest way to break a model is to forecast 200 lines for 100 SPVs.

Instead:

• driver-forecast the lines that move the needle (rent, debt service, capex, large contracts)
• bucket everything else into a controlled "Other OpEx" line

As a rule of thumb:

• forecast the top 10-20 lines that represent 80-90% of cash movement
• improve coverage over time as you learn

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Principle 5: Commitments matter as much as actual spend

Capex risk usually shows up before cash leaves the bank.

Track both:

• Capex spent (what has gone out)
• Capex committed (approved/contracted but not yet paid)

Then your forecast can show:

• baseline operations
• expected capex draw
• what happens if timing shifts (inevitable)

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Principle 6: Make intercompany transfers explicit, not hidden

SPV groups often "balance" cash with transfers, management fee recharges, or intercompany loans.

Your model should treat intercompany as a first-class citizen:

• planned upstream distributions (when allowed)
• planned downstream funding
• management fee timing
• loan repayments between entities

If you net this away, you lose the ability to predict which SPV will actually go negative.

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The scalable structure: one model, many SPVs

A model that scales usually has these components:

1) A master SPV register (your control table)

One row per SPV, with:

• bank accounts (and whether they are fed/reconciled)
• currency (if applicable)
• ownership % / consolidation group
• transferability notes (trapped vs upstreamable)
• debt facility links and payment dates
• reserve requirements (DSRA, escrow, tenant deposits)

This register becomes your "portfolio plumbing map."

2) A standard cash flow template (applied to every SPV)

Each SPV gets the same structure:

• opening cash
• standardised inflow/outflow lines
• weekly buckets for 13 weeks
• monthly buckets for months 4-12
• closing cash

3) A portfolio roll-up view (the reason you are doing this)

A consolidated view that answers:

• total unrestricted cash (and where it sits)
• SPVs forecast to go negative (and when)
• top inflow/outflow drivers this period
• capex commitments vs available liquidity
• debt service calendar (next 4-8 weeks)
• transfer plan (what needs moving, where constraints exist)

This is where multi-entity consolidation and standardised mappings become the foundation-not just for reporting, but for planning.

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A simple weekly forecasting method that finance teams can maintain

You do not need a perfect model. You need a maintainable routine:

Weekly cadence (30-60 minutes per cycle, once set up)

1. Update actuals: refresh bank movements and clear last week's forecast vs actual.

2. Roll forward the 13-week window: add a new week at the end.

3. Update "known" items:

   • debt service (from facility schedules)
   • capex commitments (from tracker / PM updates)
   • large supplier payments (from AP)

4. Update rent expectation: apply a collections assumption (e.g., 97-99% normal, stress scenarios lower).

5. Review exceptions:

   • any SPV projected to go negative
   • any SPV below a minimum cash buffer
   • any large variance vs last week's plan

6. Decide actions: transfers, defer discretionary capex, chase collections, adjust payment timing.

Outcome: the model becomes a decision engine, not a reporting artifact.

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Scenarios that matter most in property cash flow planning

You will get more value from a few practical "toggles" than from complex modelling:

• Collections sensitivity: 99% / 97% / 95% of billed rent
• Void timing: vacancy lasting 1 month longer than expected
• Capex timing shift: committed capex pulls forward by 2-4 weeks
• Rate move: +50bps / +100bps impact on floating debt
• Refinance delay: maturity pushed out, fees, or higher debt service

When these scenarios are built into the model, leadership conversations change from "What do we think will happen?" to "If X happens, here is the cash impact and the decision we need."

This is exactly where a broader FP&A layer-budgeting, forecasting, and "what-if" planning-adds compounding value on top of consolidated SPV data.

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Common mistakes that stop cash models from scaling

Mistake 1: Confusing "portfolio cash" with "available cash"

Fix: split unrestricted vs restricted vs trapped cash-every time.

Mistake 2: Building a bespoke model per SPV

Fix: one standard template + a master SPV register + a roll-up view.

Mistake 3: Over-forecasting detail

Fix: forecast the big drivers; bucket the long tail.

Mistake 4: No reconciliation discipline

Fix: always tie opening cash to bank; track forecast vs actual weekly.

Mistake 5: Ignoring intercompany reality

Fix: model transfers explicitly so you can see where shortages will occur.

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What "good" looks like after 4-6 cycles

After a month or two of disciplined use, a scalable cash planning model delivers:

• a reliable weekly view of which SPVs are at risk
• clear visibility on unrestricted liquidity
• proactive decision-making on capex timing and funding
• fewer month-end surprises, because cash planning and close start to reinforce each other
• investor/board confidence, because you can explain not just results-but liquidity and runway

And once the foundation is in place, you can build upward: automated reporting packs, scenario planning, and even AI-generated commentary that is grounded in mapped entities and controlled assumptions.